Key Points
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicts artificial intelligence could automate away 80% of today’s jobs within 10 years.
- Rapid advancements in AI technologies like ChatGPT, Midjourney, and Pika labs foreshadow machines exceeding human capabilities across professions.
- Mass job layoffs because of AI would transform economies requiring policy interventions like Universal Basic Income (UBI) or AI regulations to support eliminated job roles.
Sam Altman’s Dire AI Job Replacement Warning
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI – the company that makes ChatGPT, spoke at Wall Street Journal’s Tech Live conference in October 2023 and had some ominous things to say.
“Within 10 years AI will be able to do 80% of almost all jobs that we know of today.” – Sam Altman
Sam Altman is a prominent figure in artificial intelligence as CEO of OpenAI, a leading AI research lab he co-founded in 2015. Altman has been integral to the development of groundbreaking AI like ChatGPT that showcase rapid advancements in natural language processing. OpenAI’s mission is to, “ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.”
Sam’s statement was followed shortly by business leader Alexander Sukharevsky, CEO of QuantumBlack, a McKinsey-owned AI firm who said 70% of jobs are on the cusp of automation
We encourage the reader to think deeply about the following questions:
- What would happen to you if you no longer had access to alt job?
- What would you need for you and your family to survive?
- Do your representatives have regulations or plans to handle layoffs?
Industries Vulnerable to AI Displacement
Sam said the jobs to be replaced within 10 years include accountants and physicians, traditionally thought to be safe careers from automation. As AI models continue to progress, including new advancements with Internet connectedness, better error correction and handling, and multimodal capabilities, AI will truly be capable of exceeding what is possible for humans.
In 2023, just a few shorts months after ChatGPT was made available to the public, the AI tool was able to pass the exam for CPAs (Certified Professional Accountant). Similarly, AI tools in healthcare can more accurately diagnose patients than physicians.
AI coworkers may seem like science fiction right now, but this is the reality coming to countries all over the world. Sam Altman in a separate interview with Greylock, explained that AGI can be defined as the “equivalent of a median human that you could hire as a co-worker” and they would do anything “you’d be happy with a remote co-worker doing”. “Will AI replace jobs?” is not a question anymore, it is a reality.
How AI Could Transform the Economy
For perspective, these are only two job categories and only in the United States. Once AI reaches a point where it is actively replacing these job categories it is highly likely other industries would be suffering the same fate. To understand the impact to life and the U.S. economy, which is driven by 68% consumer spending, let’s look at how many are employed in the U.S. in just these two roles and what salaries would disappear.
Accountants
1.4 million accountants in the U.S. with an average salary of $62k per year
Physicians
1 million physicians in the U.S. with an average salary of $183k per year
We have already seen layoffs in 2023 related to AI integration. Dropbox, a leading cloud file sharing service laid off 500 employees citing the need for “different mix of skill sets, particularly in AI”. And a recent survey of 900 companies at the end of 2023 found that four in ten companies said they were planning to replace employees with artificial intelligence.
An AI-Dominated Future: UBI and AI regulation in 2024?
Governments of the world will need to help their citizens during such large job transitions. Universal Basic Income (UBI) is frequently cited as a potential solution to AI Job losses. Although a few governments around the world have tried UBI on very small scales, experimenting with less than 1,000 people, there has not been significant progress on legislation around UBI at scale.
AI regulation is another approach to helping with AI integration but only a handful of countries have begun work on AI regulation. Governments tend to be reactionary, rather than forward looking with regulation, meaning solutions to AI job losses are likely to come after the pain has already begun. In the United States the first true regulation on artificial intelligence started in 2023 with the Biden administration’s executive order on AI. However, the pace of AI development, tools, and integration vastly outpaces the executive order.
Preparing for an AI Future
Look before you leap! If you’re concerned about your job being replaced by AI we recommend the following:
- Check popular job sites to see if roles like yours are still in demand
- Read job descriptions to understand if the qualifications for your role are changing.
- Remember to fact check when thinking about a change to AI-immune careers.
- See if your industry is experiencing layoffs and understand your company’s financial situation.
Sam Altman believes that ultimately humanity is going to greatly benefit from increased productivity and hopes this technology could eliminate poverty. However, he agrees that even if humanity benefits as a whole from AI, people affected by job losses in the short term are going to feel pain as changes take place.
Staying informed about AI, the economy, and regulations are a great way to stay defensible in your career as we are likely to see changes in these areas first before they come to the job market.
